Well, after today’s Wigan victory on the road, the picture is much more clear.  Climb aboard as we sort out what’s what:STAYING UP:

Wigan

Even a draw today would have left them in great shape, but Wigan made it a sure thing and scored a victory.  All credit to Wigan: they were down and out a few months ago, and clawed their way back, with wins over Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, and Newcastle in recent weeks.  Wigan will be playing in the Premier League next season.  Robert Martinez and his boys did a great job in the past 2 months, and will probably finish as high as 15th.

Aston Villa

Another club that’s now safe, but Villa has a lot left to be proud of.  They were a mid-table team in February.  But their 9-match winless streak (going all the way back to March 10) put their survival in doubt and gave AVFC supporters a few sleepless nights.  At the end of the day, though, they’re staying up, and they can get a win over Norwich this weekend to finish on a still-respectanle 41 points.

GOING DOWN:

Wolverhampton

This has been a foregone conclusion for weeks, as Wolves needed everything to go right to stay up and instead got a run of bad luck.   They’ll probably finish on 5 wins for the season.  They do have a few decent young players, though, and with the parachute money I wouldn’t be against them returning to the Prem sometime soon.

Blackburn

I hate to be critical of a club that has a few guys I like, but the past few weeks have been just awful for Blackburn.  Facing must wins against Spurs and Wigan, they showed up sluggish and tentative.  They don’t have much firepower up front and get bossed around in the midfield.  Hard to blame Steve Kean for everything, because there were some injuries, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get the sack.

STILL BATTLING

Bolton

Losing that 2-goal lead to WBA last week really hurt Bolton.  Now they need to go on the road against a decent Stoke team, and a draw does them no good: facing a 2-point deficit, they need a win.  And they won’t be helped by the fact that defender David Wheater is out with a knee injury.  Still, 6 of Bolton’s 10 wins this season are on the road, and Stoke isn’t a giant by any means.  If Bolton can get an early goal, expect them to try to hold on for dear life.

QPR

The boys are in a much better position this week – deservedly so, having earned that gutty win on Sunday in front of the home fans.  If we can pick up even a point against City, we’re safe.  A tough task, no doubt, but we did fight pretty well against City in our earlier match this season.

In that last match, Joey Barton and Alejandro Faurlin performed surprisingly well against Man City’s midfield, and we didn’t get pushed around at all.  If it weren’t for a few great individual plays from Dzeko and Silva, we could have had a draw in that one.  So don’t think the Rs are going to be intimidated going into the match.

Tune in later this week for a more complete preview, and then we’ll be here this weekend with coverage and video highlights.

Despite the ecstatic finish, this was a mostly pedestrian performance from QPR.  Most of the game was bogged down in the middle of the field, and the Rs lacked much creativity (aside from Adel Taarabt, who played well for the fourth straight game and did manage to give Stoke some problems).  Sure, Stoke looked sluggish as well – but that’s to be expected.  They’re a mid-table team without a whole lot to play for, and they’re also known for a defensive approach, especially on the road.  But QPR really needed a win here, and despite controlling a majority of possession and leading in shots on goal, there weren’t many good chances being created and the play in the final third was poor.

It’s only fair to say, though, that our defense was playing very well throughout.  Aside from one instance in which Peter Crouch was given space to unleash a header, we mostly shut down the Stoke attack and cleared the ball well when we had to.  But up front, we weren’t getting it done for most of the game – possibly due, in part, to the absence of SWP, a move which I didn’t really understand.

Anyway, both Shaun and Jay Bothroyd were brought on late, and the move did seem to spark the offense.  From a corner, Anton Ferdinand got enough on the ball with his head to send it towards the goal, and Cisse` was in the right place at the right time.  His goal was a pretty simple knock-in.  But at that point, QPR supporters would have taken anything, as the jubilant reaction showed.  Nearly equally important, WBA staged a late 2-goal comeback to draw level with Bolton and send QPR up the table.

As of now, we sit in 16th place.  Wigan still has a match in hand (this comes tomorrow vs. Blackburn).  If the Rovers get a win in that one, we stay in 16th.  But even if Wigan wins, we still sit outside the relegation zone, and a draw vs. City next week would be enough to keep us up.  Seems like a tall order, but keep in mind we played City very tough earlier this season, and that was before the arrival of our winter reinforcements, both of whom played well today.

Here’s video of the goal and subsequent celebration:

QPR 1-0 Stoke City – Cisse Goal – 6.5… by bwin888

Cisse` earned his transfer fee right there.  Check back in later this week for a preview of Man City and a look at the final weekend of the Premier League season.

Fellow strugglers Bolton didn’t do quite as well, but they did manage to pick up a point, with Kevin Davies’ second goal salvaging a late draw.  This is a match I would have loved to see Sunderland win.  But, at this point in the season, Sunderland is one of those clubs without a whole lot to play for: nowhere near European spots, but completely safe from relegation.  That’s a part of life in the Prem.  Bolton now sits on 34 points after 35 matches, exactly the same as QPR in both categories.  We hold a guge lead in goal differential, though, if we were to find ourselves tied at the end of the season.

Finally, Aston Villa lucked into a draw as WBA missed out on what should have been a penalty kick after a hand-ball in the area.  Villa has looked incredibly poor recently, to be honest: they’ve now gone 8 straight Premier League matches without a win.  The draw helps them a bit, though, as they now sit on 37 points after 36 matches – the same line as Wigan, and 3 points ahead of Bolton, QPR and Blackburn (with those latter 3 clubs all having a game in hand over Villa and Wigan).

So – QPR is going to need points from our last 3 matchs: at Chelsea, home vs. Stoke, and at Man City.  I wouldn’t want to say exactly how many point we’ll need (it would depend mostly on Bolton’s run-in and the Blackburn-Wigan match next week), but a draw tomorrow at Chelsea would be good.  As far as the match: I’ll note that the FA cancelled the normal pre-game handshake, so as to not stoke the flames of the Ferdinand-Terry situation.  I don’t want to say too much about that, other than to say it seems like all parties sort of wish it was behind them.  But aside from that, Chelsea clearly sees this as a revenge game.  The 1-0 loss not only involved a few questionable calls, but also began the Blues’ mid-season slump.  Currently sitting in 6th, they need this one just as bad as we do.

For a line-up, Taarabt is suspended after being sent off late last week.  This means that we’ll probably start SWP-Zamora-Mackie up front, with Barton the boss of the midfield. It’s possible that Diji Cisse` gets a start, but more likely that he’ll be first forward off the bench.  On the Chelsea side, the Blues are coming off a draining midweek win over Barcelona, so I expect a bit of squad rotation for them.  David Luiz is still out, Gary Cahill is hurt, so their back 4 will probably be some combination of Cole, Ivanovic, Terry, and Bosingwa.  If SWP and Zamora can get a bit of space between them, we have a good chance at an early goal.  That’s probably what we’ll need, because our odds of keeping Drogba and company out of the net for 90 minutes are pretty low.

For QPR fans in North America, this one is on Fox Soccer Channel live.  Coverage starts at 8:30 AM.  And check back when it’s over for a recap and video highlights.  As always, stay tuned to our twitter feed at http://twitter.com/QPR_offside to be kept up to date on all things QPR.

Hodgson’s reaction:

In the early stages, QPP looked livelier, controlling the middle of the field and getting Taarabt and Bobby Zamora forward.  But WBA ‘keeper Ben Foster was up to the task on a 1-v-1 against Zamora, and a few other attacks fizzled out.  It was in the 22nd minute when Dorrans struck a powerful shot from at least 25 yards out that wriggled past Paddy Kenny, and West Brom was happy to play defensively from that point on.

Taarabt and Joey Barton had chances that they missed, but Bobby Zamora was the chief squanderer of the day – twice he had a very make-able shot that he sent wide, in addition to his early opportunity that he put right into Foster’s path.  Bobby has had some nice goals for us, but if he’d had a better touch today, we would have picked up a point.  Most of our losses this season have come from lackluster midfield play; today, we won a lot of the 50-50 balls and created several good chances, we just couldn’t finish when we really needed to.

If there was any good news, it’s that Blackburn also lost (going down 3-0 to Swansea).  So at least we’re not back in the relegation zone as of yet.  But this was a match we really needed at least a point from, with several difficult matches coming up.  We have Spurs and Chelsea coming up, and we need to take at least a point from those if we are to even have a shot.  Right now, our biggest concern is Wigan vs. Arsenal on Monday.  After that’s over, check back for an updated look at the standings and a preview of next week.

Looking at the table, Wolverhampton is probably doomed already (carrying only 22 points from 31 matches, way behind even 19th-paced Wigan).  But the four clubs directly above Wolves are down in the trenches – QPR, Wigan ‘Latics, Bolton, and Blackburn.  Let’s dig into the details and see who’s likely to fight their way to survival.

BOLTON

Games Played: 30

Points:  29

Goal Differential: -24

Next Three: vs. Fulham, at Newcastle, vs. Swansea

None of these clubs should be feeling especially optimistic, but Bolton’s situation is perhaps the least dire.  With a 1-point lead over the other three and a game in hand, Bolton has the inside track at survival.  They’ve also won three straight in the Prem, and seem to have put their worst form behind them.

But Bolton can’t rest yet.  They do have a poor goal differential that would hurt them if they finished level with Blackburn or QPR.  And their crammed schedule won’t let them relax.  A loss vs. Fulham this weekend would put Bolton right back in the danger zone.

BLACKBURN

Games Played: 31

Points: 28

Goal Differential: -21

Next Three: at West Brom, vs. Liverpool, at Swansea

Blackburn nearly earned a vital point on Monday vs. Manchester United.  But a late burst from Man U doomed the Rovers and pushed them back into the relegation zone.  Now, they absolutely need at least a point vs. West Brom this week.  Although Liverpool has been slumping, they’re still a cut above these struggling clubs, so going into next week needing a win would probably be too much to ask.

Blackburn is actually probably the best offensive club of the four on this list – the Yak is a menace against even the best defenses, and David Holiett has also been according himself very well.  It’s been leaking goals at the back (especially late goals and/or strange and unfathomable breakdowns in the defending) that have doomed Blackburn.  If they can stop giving up cheap goals, Blackburn is very much alive in the fight to stay up.

WIGAN

Games Played: 31

Points: 28

Goal Differential: -26

Next Three: at Chelsea, vs. Man U, at Arsenal

No doubt about it, those next three are brutal.  Wigan also has the Premier League’s weakest offense (no one has more than four Premier League goals) and a poor goal differential in the event of a tie in the table.  If they can stay alive, they have winnable matches the last two weeks against Blackburn and Wolves.  But that’s a tall order given their April schedule.

QPR

Games Played: 31

Points: 28

Goal Differential: -19

Next Three: Man U, vs. Swansea, at West Brom

The Rs looked lively in the big win over Arsenal last week.  Adel Taarabt may have finally found his form (too him long enough) and Bobby Zamora will provide the firepower up front until Cisse` returns from suspension.  The match-up on Sunday is a nasty one, but if we can take even a point out of that one, we have a pair of winnable matches following.

The key for the Rs are as follows: maintaining discipline and making hard and aggressive tackles in the midfield – we always run into trouble when we let opponents set up shop without hassling them.  When we’re playing our best, we turn the midfield acres into a free-for-all.  But when we look the worst (like the first Fulham match), our opponents win a ball and suddenly seem like they slide right into their offensive sets.  If Barton and Derry can get aggressive and win a few balls in the midfield, we should be able to bang out enough points to stay up.

QPR vs. Man U is the early Sunday match, and it’s on Fox Soccer Channel in the USA.  Check in after the match for a recap and video highlights, and a look ahead to see how the relegation battle is developing.

The first half was msotly in Liverpool’s favor, as QPR’s closest chance came when Liverpool’s Jose Enrique nearly put the ball into his own goal. Despite constant pressure, Liverpool didn’t score in the first half, but they had two inside of half an hour in the second – first Sebastian Coates (with a brilliant overhead kick) and then Dirk Kuyt finding the net.

But the Rs stuck with it and fought hard. In fact, it was after we went down 2-0 and has to start pushing forward that we fianlly looked lively for the first time. Taarabt sent in a cross that Derry was able to meet, and Cisse’ added another with a header ten minutes later. On both of these, you could say that poor defending or a lack of aggressiveness from Liverpool were to blame, although the Cisse` goal still had a touch of talent about it, as he got his head to the high ball and sent it back the other way around Reina.

But the clincher was, to be honest, nearly a gift. Mackie ran through a long ball, but one of the Liverpool defenders (Skrtel?) has a clear chance to knock it away, and just missed. Mackie was there to run through the loose ball, and put it far side past Reina for the electrifying win.

Some video – all 5 goals are here:

With the win, QPR sit in 17th (although with a game in hand on the other relegation strugglers). We’re on the road this wekend vs. Sunderland – if we can pick up a point from this one, things are really starting to look up.

The Rs travel north to take on fellow Premier League strugglers Bolton.  After week 1, Bolton supporters thought their club was in for an exciting season after stomping us by a 4-0 score-line.  But their subsequent season has been even more disappointing than ours: the Wanderers currently sit on 20 points, and have lost 19 matches outright (most in the Prem).  But they still have some talent, and have scored more goals than us this season.  With that week 1 result in mind, QPR will certainly be on our toes from the opening kick.

To help preview the match, we called on our friends over at Lion of Vienna Suite, the internet’s greatest and most respected Bolton blog.  Matilda was kind enough to provide some answers to our burning questions and give us a look at the upcoming fixture from the Bolton fans’ point of view.  The underlined text denotes my questions, and the normal text her responses.  When you’re done reading, go check out Lion of Vienna Suite – it really is a well-run operation with excellent writing and a fun feel.

PHIL: I’m going to assume you’re a big Owen Coyle fan.  I mean, how could you not be?  He’s a bright, creative young coach and everyone in the game has something good to say about him.  Has the presence of a universally admired coach made it especially hard to watch the team struggle?  You know, without the cathartic potential of always being able to say “fire his sorry ass!”

Or am I assuming too much?  Have any Bolton fans been calling for his head?

MATILDA: At this point I actually have mixed feelings about Owen Coyle. It was a relief to have someone as charismatic as him come in after the black hole of happiness that was (and still is, presumably) Gary Megson, and his first full season was absolutely glorious. Glorious that is, until the injury of Stu Holden. The team hasn’t recovered since, as evidenced by the fact that Bolton have rarely been above the relegation zone this season. This has thrown Saint Owen into a bit of doubt and there is an increasingly loud contingent of Bolton fans wanting him out. I am not quite there yet, I think a lot of the tactical problems could be solved with a more competent backroom staff, but he has proved himself much more fallible than originally thought.

P: Looking back on it now … God, that early season schedule was just BRUTAL for you guys.  You clobbered us in week 1, then had 6 straight games against basically the best teams in the Prem: City, Liverpool, Man U, Norwich, Arsenal, Chelsea.  Do you think Bolton’s entire season would have turned out differently if you’d had a more balanced early schedule?  What did you guys do to piss off the schedule-makers, anyway?

M: There is no getting around it, it was killer, and it did set a pretty bad tone for the rest of the season. It would be a-cop out to blame the terrible form and terrible performances on a bad start. I think it has had a terrible effect on the self confidence of the club as a whole, which is difficult to recover from, but in the end they’re meant to be professionals and this is their job. In short: it is an explanation, but it’s not an excuse. As for the schedule-makers, I daren’t think of what we must have done to them.

P: Seems like you guys sort of had it turned around in January: a pair of FA Cup wins, a big victory over Liverpool, and a solid draw against Arsenal. Even the loss against Norwich wasn’t terrible (on the road, pretty decent opponent, you guys defended OK).  It was really that February 11 home loss vs. Wigan that might come back to haunt you.  What happened in that one? Poor midfield play? Confusion on the back line?  Plain old bad luck?

M: In general, I don’t like it when Bolton loses, but I’ve learned it’s a part of life and can accept it. Except Wigan. I dislike losing, but I hate losing to Wigan. The problem that match? The whole team. They let Wigan run all over them, no tenacity in the midfield, the back line was more accurately a back squiggle. It wasn’t exactly a new sight to Bolton fans either, those have been the main problems with the team this season. Defenders seems to have forgotten the concept of marking and midfielders have difficulty maintaining a coherent spell of possession. There are myriad problems, but unfortunately none can be attributed to bad luck. With almost every loss this season, the Trotters have lost because they deserved to.

P: Man, that Stuart Holden is a wimpy little nerd, is he not?  I mean, he has to be just the weakest punk in the history of the world.  Red-blooded American men are ashamed of him.  We’re not all that weak, I promise.

M: Stu Holden is a god amongst men and I’ll hear nothing ill of him. How could you not love that hair?

[At this point, Matilda requests that we embed the following video.  We’re nothing if not obliging.]

P: So, let’s say that a time-travelling soccer demi-god comes down from heaven and offers you the following options:

(A) You get thrashed in the next round of the FA Cup, scratch out a few draws for the rest of the season, win the last two matches vs. WBA and Stoke, and manage to stay up by the skin of your teeth; or

(B) You don’t win a single Premier League match for the rest of the season, you finish in 20th and get relegated … but you win the FA Cup.

What do you do?

M: I would probably have to go with B. Just getting to the semi-finals last season was exciting enough (let’s forget about what actually happened at Wembley), I can’t imagine how a cup would feel. Bolton have never won the first division, and realistically aren’t likely to in my lifetime, so a cup is the most I can really hope for. While I would be gutted if we were relegated, I know we’re not the biggest club and that we will see the Championship again at some point. Give me the cup.

_____________

So there you have it.  Pessimism abounds in places other than Loftus Road.  We wish our Northern neighbors the best of luck, especially with “Little Stuart” Holden out of the line-up.

On our side, Adel Taarabt has been struggling with a hamstring problem and is likely a no-go.  So Cissé and Bobby Zamora will start up top, either in a dual-striker role or with Cissé at the head of the line and Zamora filling in the space behind him.  Ali Faurlin is still out, so Joey Barton and Shaun Derry will be manning the midfield.

This match will be broadcast live in North American on ESPN 2 – our only ESPN 2 match of the season, so take advantage of it.  And check back afterwards for a recap and video highlights.  As always, stay tuned to our twitter feed at http://twitter.com/QPR_offside to be kept up-to-date on all the important QPR news and notes.  And, if you like what you see over at Lion of Vienna Suite, you can follow them at http://twitter.com/LionOfViennaSte as well.

In the early going, QPR almost got off to the worst possible start – Everton’s Tim Cahill fired a dangerous shot that rattled off the crossbar.  After that, we settled in defensively and played well for a few minutes.  But Royston Drenthe took advantage of a Taarabt turnover and blasted a long range shot that found the net.  I felt like Kenny might have had a chance, but it was an excellent shot from Drenthe.

After that, though, I thought QPR responded well.  We didn’t throw up our hands, we continued to fight in the midfield and win balls, with Barton and Taarabt continually creating.  The Rs’ goal came late in the first, as Taarbs made a swerving run down the flank and was brought down.  On the resulting free-kick, Buzsaky sent in an accurate pass and Zamora was there to knock home.  It was a bit lucky, as Howard got a hand on it but couldn’t control – still, we had been pressing forward and Taarabt looked dangerous in drawing the foul, so it was no more than we deserved.

At the end of the first half and the first part of the second, QPR was more in control.  Taarabt has a nice move that led to a shot that hit the post, and Shaun Derry sent in a threatening ball that Onuoha just couldn’t manage to get onto goal.  We had some nice build-up play in the midfield in the second half, and Everton had only sporadic chances.  But we couldn’t get the winner, as Howard has a nice save and we had two or three efforts go just wide.

Disappointed not to get the win, but a point will come in handy in the relegation battle.  Blackburn also squeaked out a draw today, but Wigan and Bolton were both defeated.  The most important matches coming up: Wolverhampton on the road vs. Fulham tomorrow, and our match vs. Bolton next week.  If we can get a win in that, our position become much more secure.  Fortunately, Cisse` will be back for that one – with both he and Zamora up front, we’re much more threatening.

Some video – nice shot of Tony Fernandes celebrating in the stands:

Q1-1E by fasthighlights-2012

Check in Monday or Tuesday for a preview of the Bolton match.

For QPR, Diji Cissé will be serving out his red card suspension.  This means Zamora will surely get the start, along with either Taarabt or Helguson up front – or both, if we run out 2 strikers and use Taarbs on the wing.  The real question will be the sufficiency of our back-line – despite some transfer market improvements, the Rs defense looked leaky last time out, as lowly Blackburn notched 3 against us (including an own-goal).

My guess is that Anton Ferdinand, Fitz Hall, and Taiwo will start, along with (hopefully) Traoré at the other fullback spot.  Hughes tried the Traoré-at-wing move last match, but frankly we need his skill on the back line.

On the Fulham side, several changes have been made since the club stomped QPR in their first meeting.  But manager Martin Jol still has plenty of options.  Pavel Pogrebnyak, the newcomer from Stuttgart, had a goal vs. Stoke last weekend, and has probably earned another start.  But the real strength of Fulham side lies in their midfield, led by Danny Murphy and Clint Dempsey.  In our last meeting, Fulham completely controlled the middle of the field as Neil Warnock opted for an aggressive 4-4-3 that backfired – we wrote about this match here.  The key to slowing down Fulham is to press the ball in the middle of the field with at least 2 middies that are (mostly) committed to defending.  If Barton goes out there looking to be attacker-man, we could be in trouble again.

And finally, we get some love from Fox Soccer Channel.  The match will be broadcast live on Fox Soccer Plus at 10 AM Eastern USA time, 3 PM Greenwich mean time.  I think we only get live coverage because Liverpool-Everton was postponed due to the Carling Cup schedule.  But, whatever.  We’ll take it.  Check back after the match for a recap and some video highlights.

QPR’s new striker, Djibril Cissé, will miss the match due to suspension – he was tagged for 3 games after last week’s controversial red card.  But fellow newcomer Bobby Zamora will be available, and Jay Bothroyd will be returning from a nagging groin injury.

With Helguson still injured, our front four will probably consist of Zamora up top, with Adel Taarabt behind him and Bothroyd and SWP on either wing.  This is a dangerous line-up that should be able to trouble Blackburn, even without Cissé.  The problem comes on the middle and back ends: Faurlin is still out, so Joey Barton and Shaun Derry will likely man the midfield.  Barton has been doing alright in the captain role, but he hasn’t been seizing control of the middle of the field the way we need him to.  And Derry is a crafty veteran, but doesn’t have the pace or the touch to draw defenders.  Basically, we’ll be running more of a 4-3-3 for most of the game, as one of the forwards (probably Taarbs) has to work his way back upfield to help establish the offense.  If Barton can start winning balls and building the attack in the early going, we’re in much better shape.

For Blackburn, embattled boss Steve Kean seems to face a “must win” every week … but this week, it might truly be for keeps.  The Nigerian striker Aiyegbeni Yakubu returns this week, which should give the Rovers a boost.  The Yak is a big target with a lethal shot, and by far Blackburn’s most dangerous man in the box.  So our rebuilt back line is going to have to be on its toes, and it will be more important than ever to clear every loose ball and rebound (not a strong part of our this season).  Luckily, Armand Traoré has returned from international duty.  I expect him to get the start at fullback.

The match kicks off at 3 PM local time.  Fox Soccer Channel will be showing the replay, for those living in North America.  We’ll be here after the match with a recap and some video highlight.  Come on, you Rs!